The United Kingdom is expected to experience a substantial demographic shift in the coming years, with projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicating that the population will surge to 73.7 million by mid-2036. This surpasses previous estimates, suggesting that the country will reach the 70 million mark a decade earlier than anticipated.
This projection implies a noteworthy increase of approximately 6.6 million individuals, reflecting a growth rate of 9.9%, from the estimated 67 million in mid-2021. The ONS bases these figures on long-term international net migration, representing the difference between the number of people entering and leaving the country.
It is projected that 6.1 million of the population increase will result from net migration, with the remaining growth stemming from a higher number of births compared to deaths.
It’s crucial to understand that these statistics are projections rather than predictions or forecasts. They rely on existing and historical trends, and the actual population levels in the future may vary due to policy changes and unforeseen shifts in migrant behavior patterns, as highlighted by the ONS.
The new projections anticipate a decline in net migration over the next few years, projecting a peak of around 670,000 in the 12 months to June 2023, before settling at 315,000 from 2028 onwards.
Over the 15-year span from mid-2021 to mid-2036, the projections suggest that 10.8 million people will be born, 10.3 million will pass away, 13.7 million will relocate to the UK, and 7.6 million will emigrate.
James Robards, the ONS’s head of population and household projections, emphasized the likelihood of higher levels of international migration in the long term compared to previous estimates.
However, he also stressed the uncertainty in provisional international migration estimates, acknowledging that future migration patterns could be influenced by policy changes and unknown behavioral patterns.
These latest projections not only indicate the possibility of reaching a population of 70 million by mid-2026, a decade earlier than previously thought, but also forecast changes in the demographic composition.
The population aged 85 and over is expected to grow from 1.6 million (2.5% of the total population) to 2.6 million (3.5%) in the next 15 years.
Furthermore, the demographic mix is projected to tilt towards older age groups, with individuals aged 75 and over accounting for one in ten of the total population by 2029 and one in nine by 2037. Concurrently, people of pension age are expected to represent one in five by the same year.
While these projections indicate a significant population increase, it is noteworthy that the proportional growth over the next 25 years is slightly less than the previous 25 years.
From mid-1996 to mid-2021, the population experienced an 8.9 million increase (15.3%), whereas projections anticipate a growth of 9.5 million (14.2%) from mid-2021 to mid-2046. These figures underscore the dynamic nature of demographic trends and the evolving landscape of the UK’s population.
